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Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 revenue of $54.7M grew 79% YoY, contributing to record FY24 revenue of $228.0M (nearly 3× 2023). Backlog reached a record $328.3M (+22% YoY). Cash ended 2024 at $207.6M; post-warrant redemptions, cash was $385M on Mar 10, 2025, leaving the company “financially secure, debt-free.”
  • 2025 outlook: revenue $250–$300M; management targeting positive run-rate Adjusted EBITDA by Q4’25 and positive Adjusted EBITDA in 2026. Mix shift toward higher-margin data services (Near Space Network) highlighted.
  • Profitability still developing: Q4 gross profit was $0.7M; operating loss $(13.4)M; Adjusted EBITDA $(11.2)M. Large non-cash fair value charges on earn-out and warrants drove GAAP net loss.
  • Strategic catalysts: IM-3 mission (with first data relay satellite), two CLPS competitions in 2025, LTVS downselect expected 2H25, and expanding national security/data services footprint (authorization to work with other agencies).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Strong top-line and backlog momentum: Q4 revenue $54.7M (+79% YoY); FY24 $228.0M; backlog $328.3M (+22% YoY). “Second consecutive quarter of positive gross margin.”
    • Balance sheet fortified: $125M equity offering in Dec 2024 plus warrant exercises; cash $207.6M at year-end and $385M by Mar 10; no public $11.50 warrants outstanding; opened a $40M undrawn facility.
    • Strategic progress in data services: sole-award Near Space Network (NSN) advancing; IM-3 to deploy first relay satellite enabling “pay-by-the-minute” services; Nokia’s lunar cellular payload deemed a “rousing success.”

  • What Went Wrong

    • Profitability remains a work-in-progress: Q4 operating loss $(13.4)M; Adjusted EBITDA $(11.2)M; higher SG&A (public company costs, compensation, facilities) weighed on results.
    • Large non-cash charges drove GAAP loss: Q4 included $(86.3)M change in fair value of earn-out liabilities, $(41.0)M change in fair value of warrant liabilities, and $(25.1)M loss on issuance of securities.
    • Mission execution risks persist: IM-2 landing “didn’t go quite as planned,” necessitating a comprehensive “hot wash” through mid-April; however, payload operations captured most success payments and validated comms/navigation.

Financial Results

Revenue and YoY trend

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q4 2023
Revenue ($USD Millions)$41.4 $58.5 $54.662 $30.591
YoY Growth (Q4)——78.7% (derived from $54.662 vs $30.591) —

Profitability (selected)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)—$4.1 $0.7
Operating Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(28.2) $(13.7) $(13.397)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)——$(11.239)

Key non-cash items in Q4

ItemQ4 2024 ($USD Millions)
Change in fair value – Earn-out liabilities$(86.308)
Change in fair value – Warrant liabilities$(41.010)
Loss on issuance of securities$(25.056)

Segment/program mix (disclosed datapoints)

ProgramQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
OMES revenue ($USD Millions)—$34.1 $30.0
Other (CLPS, LTVS, etc.)Not quantified Not quantified Not quantified

KPIs and balance sheet

KPIValue
Backlog (Dec 31, 2024)$328.345M
Cash & Cash Equivalents (Dec 31, 2024)$207.607M
Cash Balance (Mar 10, 2025 post-warrants)$385M
Free Cash Flow (FY 2024)$(67.698)M
Shares Outstanding (Mar 18, 2025)178.3M total; 115.7M Class A; 62.6M Class C

Notes:

  • Intuitive Machines cited “second consecutive quarter of positive gross margin” in Q4 and FY24.
  • FY24 cash flow from operations $(57.6)M; capex $(10.1)M; FCF $(67.7)M.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025Not previously issued$250–$300M New
Adjusted EBITDA (run-rate)Exit 2025Not previously issuedPositive run-rate by Q4’25 New
Adjusted EBITDA (annual)FY 2026Not previously issuedPositive in 2026 New

Reference (prior-year guide progression for context):

  • FY 2024 revenue guide raised to $210–$240M in Q2’24 and later narrowed to $215–$235M in Q3’24; actual FY24 delivered $228.0M.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Q-2)Q3 2024 (Q-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Data/NSN build-outExpected NSNS award; building ground network; first relay sat target with IM-3 Sole award up to $4.82B; plan 5-sat constellation; pay-by-the-minute model; IM-3 first deployment Additional DTE awards; authorizations to work with other agencies; IM-3 first sat then IM-4 next two; higher-margin recurring services Strengthening, clearer timelines
LTV (rover + Nova-D lander)Design validated at SRR; unique full-service positioning Prototype delivered for astronaut testing; competitive phase ongoing Nova-D PDR prep; LTV PDR 1H25; downselect expected 2H25; no FY25 revenue assumed Continued maturation; schedule clarity
Mission cadence (IM-2/IM-3)IM-2 landing window early 2025; IM-3 into early 2026 IM-2 targeted Q1’25; IM-3 late ’25/early ’26 with first relay sat IM-2 completed with mixed outcome but payload success; IM-3 on track “this time next year,” 60–90 day commissioning for relay Executing; validation continues
National security/DoDJETSON low-power nuclear, rideshare to exotic orbits (SEOPS), DoD subs Emphasis on commercial model supporting Artemis; policy tailwinds Authorization to engage other agencies; expanding data services seen as “national asset” Broadening addressable market
Financial postureSufficient cash for 12 months; debt-free Record cash $89.6M; ATM completed; 0 debt “Fortress” balance sheet; $385M cash post-warrants; $40M facility; guides to EBITDA improvement Materially stronger liquidity

Management Commentary

  • “Now, with a fortress-like balance sheet, we’re seeking the highest-return opportunities, whether that’s through internal innovation or strategic acquisitions.”
  • “The function of our spacecraft for the entire mission was nearly flawless... validating [our] data transmission network,” despite IM-2 landing not going as planned; majority of success payments captured.
  • On NSN: “This... introduces a pay-by-the-minute service model… higher margin and recurring revenue streams.”
  • CFO on profitability path: “Focus on having a positive run rate-adjusted EBITDA by the fourth quarter of 2025 and a positive adjusted EBITDA by 2026.”

Q&A Highlights

  • LTV revenue not in 2025 plan: Management expects LTV downselect in 2H25 with revenue impact mainly in 2026; only the initial $30M is assumed in 2025 plan.
  • NSN satellite deployment cadence: First relay satellite rideshare on IM-3 around this time next year; second/third with IM-4 in 2H’27; fourth/fifth ~1 year later; highly elliptical polar orbit for South Pole coverage.
  • IM-2 “hot wash” timeline: Intensive 30-day review with internal/external experts; internal review Apr 3 and finalization mid-April to inform IM-3/other missions.
  • Data services commercialization: Appointment of SVP of Data Services; leveraging LRO/ShadowCam ops; building a “national asset” network usable by multiple agencies.
  • Capital allocation and M&A: Strategic, opportunistic M&A and propulsion upgrades (e-pump) to support Nova-D; balance-sheet strength gives flexibility.

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for revenue and EPS for Q2–Q4 2024, but no estimates were available for comparison at this time. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Implications: With FY25 revenue guide now set at $250–$300M and explicit EBITDA timeline, analysts will need to rebase models for mix shift toward data services (NSN) and the IM-3 commissioning revenue phasing.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Liquidity de-risks execution: $207.6M year-end cash and $385M by Mar 10, plus $40M credit facility, support satellite and mission cadence without near-term financing risk.
  • Transition to higher-margin, recurring revenue: NSN milestones (IM-3 deployment; commissioning) are pivotal catalysts for valuation re-rating toward a data/services multiple.
  • 2025 revenue visibility: Backlog ($328.3M) with 60–65% expected to be recognized in 2025 underpins the $250–$300M guide; upside tied to CLPS awards and potential task orders.
  • Profitability path credible but execution-dependent: Positive run-rate Adjusted EBITDA by Q4’25 hinges on NSN rollout and cost discipline; monitor SG&A stabilization noted by CFO.
  • Mission/capture risk persists: IM-2 underscores technical risk; the April “hot wash” outcomes and IM-3 schedule are near-term watch items for sentiment.
  • 2025–2027 catalysts: Two CLPS competitions (first due May with July award), IM-3 launch/commissioning, IM-4 multi-satellite rideshare in 2027, and LTV downselect in 2H25.
  • Strategic optionality: Authorizations to engage non-NASA agencies plus potential M&A/vertical integration provide diversified growth vectors beyond CLPS.

Citations:

  • 8-K Q4/FY2024 earnings press release and financials:
  • Q4 2024 earnings call transcript:
  • Q3 2024 call/transcript:
  • Q2 2024 call/transcript:
  • Dec 2024 capital raise context:

Footnote: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.